Where the numbers come from
Reliable Toronto condo market data sources, all publicly available:
- TRREB (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board) — monthly market reports broken down by property type, district, and price band. trreb.ca/market-stats.
- CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) — national MLS Home Price Index. The HPI is a composite measure designed to be less sensitive to mix-shift than median price.
- Bank of Canada — rate decisions and inflation context. bankofcanada.ca.
- CMHC — Rental Market Report (annual), Housing Market Outlook (semi-annual), Toronto-specific charts.
- Statistics Canada — population, migration, building permits, household formation.
This guide cites those sources by name without freezing specific monthly figures — the underlying numbers move and what matters is the framework.
The supply story
Toronto condo completions surged in the 2022–2024 window as a long pipeline of pre-construction projects from 2017–2020 sales centres delivered. Active MLS listings of resale condos rose substantially through this period — partly from completions, partly from investors selling, partly from owner-occupiers downsizing or rotating.
Pre-construction starts, in contrast, slowed materially in 2023–2025 as developer math broke under higher construction costs and softer end-buyer prices. The 2027–2029 completion pipeline is thinner than the 2023–2025 completion pipeline. Whether that matters depends on demand.
The demand story
Three demand vectors:
End-user demand
Owner-occupiers buying for principal residence. Driven by household formation, migration, and affordability (interest rates × income × price). The Bank of Canada's rate cuts in 2024–2025 expanded affordability at the margin; the stress test still binds.
Investor demand
Rental investors. Sensitive to rent yields, interest rates, and tax treatment. The 2022–2024 era saw negative cash-flow investing — investors covered monthly carrying costs out of pocket on the bet that price appreciation would compensate. As rates rose, this thesis broke for many; investor selling rose.
Foreign demand
The federal Prohibition Act and Ontario's 25% NRST suppressed foreign buyer activity significantly. Industry numbers suggest foreign purchases in Toronto are now low single-digit percentages of total volume vs. higher levels pre-2017.
The rate environment
The Bank of Canada's policy rate sat at 5.00% through most of 2023, began easing in mid-2024, and continued through 2025. The five-year fixed mortgage rate trailed but moved in the same direction. As of writing in mid-2026, mortgage rates remain meaningfully below the 2023 peak but materially above the 2020–2021 floor.
For Toronto buyers, rates affect:
- Maximum loan that a given income supports (the qualifying rate matters more than the contract rate).
- Monthly carrying cost.
- Investor underwriting (cap rates and cash flow).
The bond market sets long-term rates; the Bank of Canada sets short. The two don't move in lockstep.
The data, not the narrative
Real estate narratives ("the bubble", "the recovery", "the boom", "the crash") are emotional shorthand for what data shows ambiguously. The 2024–2026 Toronto condo market has been better characterized by mix-shift — downtown sub-700 sq ft units soft, larger family-format units firm, certain pockets out-performing others — than by a single direction.
For a buyer in mid-2026, the question to ask is not "where is the market going" (no one knows) but "is this specific unit, in this specific building, at this specific price, a deal I would still want to own in 5 years if prices were flat from here." That's a question you can actually answer.
What this means for you
Three practical implications:
- Don't over-index on macro forecasts. Even good forecasters miss turns. Your decision should turn on your time horizon, your monthly cash flow, and the specific deal — not on whether the market is "going up".
- The supply–demand pinch point in 2028–2030 is plausible but not guaranteed. Pre-construction starts have slowed; immigration has moderated. Whether the net is tight or balanced depends on labour mobility, household formation, and policy.
- Sub-market mix matters more than the headline. A 500 sq ft micro-condo in a 2018 tower and a 1,100 sq ft two-bed in a 1998 building behave like different products even when "Toronto condos" is the headline.
The neutrality here is on purpose — this is RECO-licensed real estate, not stock-tipping.
Frequently asked questions
Are Toronto condo prices going up or down in 2026?
Toronto condo prices have been mixed across sub-markets in 2025–2026 — some pockets have firmed, some have softened. The honest answer is: it depends on building, size, and location. Verify with current TRREB monthly reports.
Is now a good time to buy?
"A good time" depends on your situation more than the market. If you have a stable income, a 5+ year horizon, and a specific unit that fits your budget and life, the macro question is secondary. If any of those legs is shaky, slowing down is rarely the wrong call.
Will the federal foreign-buyer ban be extended?
The original 2-year Prohibition Act was extended by 2 years in 2024. Further extensions are possible but not certain. As of writing, the current end date is in early 2027. Verify with the Government of Canada.
How do I track Toronto condo prices myself?
TRREB publishes monthly market reports broken down by property type and district — the most authoritative public Toronto data. CREA's MLS HPI is more methodologically rigorous (less sensitive to mix-shift). CondoGo's building pages show per-building $/sq ft current averages.
Talk to a Toronto Condo Broker
I'm Scott Miralami — a licensed Broker at Central Home Realty Inc., Brokerage, focused on the Toronto downtown condo market. If you have a question about anything you read here, send me a note. I read every message myself.